Bitcoin steadied in Asian trading on Thursday, hovering near $77,600 after a brief dip to $76,400 in late U.S. hours. That put the price above the $77,500 level again, though traders did not seem convinced a full recovery was underway. Ether lagged the group, trading just under $2,400. XRP led major altcoins with a gain of nearly 3% to $1.36. BNB and Solana each added about 2%, with Solana holding the $100 line. Tron rose roughly 1% to 33 cents, and Hyperliquid’s HYPE stayed flat just above $82.
Over the past week, the picture turned mixed. Ether fell almost 4%, Tron dropped about 3%, XRP lost roughly 3%, and Bitcoin slipped around 1%. Zcash held at $817, and HYPE remained one of the few coins with a weekly gain.
A key level and the cost-basis question
Bitfinex analysts noted that the average cost basis of every active investor on the Bitcoin network was around $76,350. Bitcoin came within $50 of that level before buyers stepped in. That zone has absorbed sellers who opened positions in February and March, allowing them to exit near breakeven rather than at a loss. That may explain why the dip did not go deeper. Still, the analysts warned that Bitcoin could face a pullback in the coming weeks. September has historically been a bearish month for Bitcoin, with an average return of negative 2.95% since 2013. August’s strength might fade, though they think any intra-month correction could still leave the larger trend pointing higher.
Bond markets push back
Bitcoin held its ground even as the bond market moved in the opposite direction. Renewed U.S. strikes near the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude prices higher and revived what some call the “inflation trade”. The ten-year Treasury yield closed just above 4.8%, the highest since 2023, while the dollar index firmed to just under 100. Equities took the news in stride. The S&P 500 finished at 7,646, the Dow added roughly 277 points, and gold settled near $4,418.
The macro backdrop matters because Fed rate hike odds are now near 66%. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report will likely settle the September meeting. The options market is positioned around that release. Downside protection sits between $68,000 and $75,000 for the window running into the CPI print on Sept. 11, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Upside exposure is held in calls above the current range, while open interest in perpetual futures remains well below its August peak.
Flows still look thin
On-chain flows do not yet confirm a strong recovery. Labelled entities sent roughly 3,700 Bitcoin to exchanges over the past week. Spot ETFs lost about $236 million. Stablecoin supply flattened near $310 billion after increasing every day through August’s advance. As Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Søndergaard put it, that combination suggests the recovery still lacks consistent spot-flow confirmation.
This is not a clean bullish signal. But the buyer response around the cost-basis level matters. If that zone holds and Friday’s jobs data does not surprise, Bitcoin may keep grinding higher. If it breaks, the options book already points to lower levels.
